After 15 months of war, the Israeli cabinet and Hamas approved a ceasefire that is set to finally bring an end to the conflict. It has seen over 45,000 Palestinians and over 1,700 Israelis be killed, as well as hundreds of captives and detainees taken by both Hamas and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). With Israel still attacking the Gaza Strip before the start of the ceasefire and Snipers still mounted in the West Bank, settlements still expanding and Palestinian fervour for armed resistance growing, one must question whether lasting peace is possible.
Terms of the ceasefire
The ceasefire terms are similar to those of deals that Israel and Hamas have rejected in the past, indicating the level of unrest and fatigue from the population at the state of the war and the hostages. It will take place in three phases that both parties will have to adhere to.
The first stage, lasting six weeks, would involve the delivery of 33 Israeli hostages, dead and alive. The remaining hostage releases are to be negotiated later down the line. After seven days, displaced people in southern Gaza would return to the evacuated north, without inspection, after an IDF withdrawal from the Netzarim corridor (which connects IDF access from the south to the north). This would grant freedom of movement between north and south Gaza. By the 22nd day, the IDF would withdraw entirely from the Netzarim corridor, allowing full freedom of movement. Followed by a total withdrawal towards the border from all areas of the Gaza Strip, should enable the wounded to seek treatment abroad. With the sponsorship of Qatar, 600 aid trucks would be brought in daily, along with 200,000 tents and 60,000 caravans for urgent shelter.
In exchange for the Israeli hostages, Israel plans to release approximately 1,700 Palestinians currently held in Israeli custody. A significant number of these individuals have been indefinitely incarcerated without formal charges under the practice known as “administrative detention.” According to the Israeli human rights organisation B’Tselem, conditions in these detention facilities are so marked by systemic abuse that they have been described as tantamount to "torture camps."(Guardian).
Displaced persons would return to their homes, while Israeli flights will be absent from the sector’s airspace for eight to ten hours daily. Hospitals would be rebuilt, and field hospitals and medical teams introduced to the sector, as well as humanitarian medical aid.
If a deal for a second phase is not reached after six weeks, the IDF would likely re-enter Gaza. A second and third phase would introduce a ‘sustainable calm’, further hostage releases, exchanging of dead bodies, further aid and reconstruction of Gaza and movement into and out of Gaza’s borders.
Further violence?
I write this on the 19th of January, a day in which the fighting has stopped and three Israeli hostages have been returned. The question is, however, whether this will be just another pause in hostilities in this long conflict. The 2010s started with allusions to new borders and an end to the illegal settlements in the Palestinian terrorities, but the landscape in the mid-2020s is one of displacement, death, and a finding by the International Court of Justice of potential genocide. The right to return is still not affirmed for the Palestinians. The Israelis still fear the axis of Arab states near their borders. There is much uncertainty with regards to rights, land and sovereignty. Israel recently breached their ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, and both sides of this conflict have breached ceasefires in the past. Much of the Palestinian population mourns the architects of their violent response to Israel, with chants for Sinwar and Deif in the streets. Israel is still governed by their democratically chosen far-right government, elected in part for their hawkish foreign policy ideas. The new Trump government has an incredibly pro-Israel, neoconservative stance. Lasting peace will not come from this agreement alone but must be backed by clear action from all parties, including courts and international support.
Further reading
“What we know about the Gaza ceasefire deal“ (BBC,19 January 2025)
“A look at the terms-and tensions-in the Israel-Hamas draft ceasefire deal “ (AP News, 15 January 2025)
“Israeli forces to kill teenager amid intensified raids in occupied West Bank “ (AlJazeera, 4 Jan 2025)
“Israel approves Gaza ceasefire, carries out more attacks “ (Reuters, 18 January 2025)
"Statistics on Palestinians in Israeli custody" (B'Tselem, 2 September 2024)
"Palestinian prisoners describe systemic abuse in Israel’s jails" (The Guardian, 5 August 2024)
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